ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2021
Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- New, fast, and precise method of COVID-19 detection in nasopharyngeal and tracheal aspirate samples combining optical spectroscopy and machine learning.Brazilian journal of microbiology : [publication of the Brazilian Society for Microbiology] · 2023Article
- The COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination abandonment in children: spatial heterogeneity maps.Revista latino-americana de enfermagem · 2022Article
- How many more? Under-reporting of the COVID-19 deaths in Brazil in 2020.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2021Article
- Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
By analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4% and a prevalence of 2.6%. The geographical distribution of cases and deaths and its ethnic correlation are also presented. This study points out the necessity of governmental and private organizations working together to improve public awareness and stimulate social distancing to curb the viral infection, especially in critical places with high poverty.
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