Weather and agricultural intensification determine the breeding performance of a small generalist predator.

Land-use changes due to agricultural intensification and climatic factors can affect avian reproduction. We use a top predator of agroecosystems, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius) breeding in nest boxes in Central Argentina as a study subject to identify if these two drivers interact to affect birds breeding. We analyzed their breeding performance across a gradient of agricultural intensification from native forest, traditional farmland to intensive farmland. The surface devoted to soybean was used as a proxy of agriculture intensification; however, it did not affect the breeding performance of American kestrels. Even though the presence of pastures was important to determine the probability of breeding successfully. Climatic variables had strong effects on the species breeding timing, on the number of nestlings raised by breeding pairs and on the probability of those pairs to breed successfully (raising at least one fledgling). Our results highlight the relevance of pastures and grasslands for American kestrel reproduction. These environments are the most affected by land-use change to intensive agriculture, being transformed into fully agricultural lands mostly devoted to soybean production. Therefore, future expansion of intensive agriculture may negatively affect the average reproductive parameters of American Kestrels, at least at a regional scale. Further research will be needed to disentangle the mechanisms by which weather variables affect kestrel breeding parameters.