ArticleEpidemiology and infection2020
Chasing the ghost of infection past: identifying thresholds of change during the COVID-19 infection in Spain.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Variability in the serial interval of COVID-19 in South Korea: a comprehensive analysis of age and regional influences.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Stock market responses to COVID-19: The behaviors of mean reversion, dependence and persistence.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Changes in prescription drug abuse during the COVID-19 pandemic evidenced in the Catalan pharmacies.Frontiers in public health · 2023Observational
- Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?Biometrics · 2022Article
- Human Mobility and Droplet-Transmissible Pediatric Infectious Diseases during the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The effect of COVID-19 on mental well-being in Switzerland: a cross-sectional survey of the adult Swiss general population.BMC family practice · 2021Observational
- COVID-19 effective reproduction number dropped during Spain's nationwide dropdown, then spiked at lower-incidence regions.The Science of the total environment · 2021Article
- Article
- Risk Perception of COVID-19 Community Transmission among the Spanish Population.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Observational
- A phenomenological approach to assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 related nonpharmaceutical interventions in Germany.Safety science · 2020Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
One of the largest nationwide bursts of the first COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Spain, where infection expanded in densely populated areas through March 2020. We analyse the cumulative growth curves of reported cases and deaths in all Spain and two highly populated regions, Madrid and Catalonia, identifying changes and sudden shifts in their exponential growth rate through segmented Poisson regressions. We associate these breakpoints with a timeline of key events and containment measures, and data on policy stringency and citizen mobility. Results were largely consistent for infections and deaths in all territories, showing four major shifts involving 19-71% reductions in growth rates originating from infections before 3 March and on 5-8, 10-12 and 14-18 March, but no identifiable effect of the strengthened lockdown of 29-30 March. Changes in stringency and mobility were only associated to the latter two shifts, evidencing an early deceleration in COVID-19 spread associated to personal hygiene and social distancing recommendations, followed by a stronger decrease when lockdown was enforced, leading to the contention of the outbreak by mid-April. This highlights the importance of combining public health communication strategies and hard confinement measures to contain epidemics.
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