Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33179531›Full record

ArticleBone & joint research2020

Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis.

Lea Trela-Larsen, Gard Kroken, Christoffer Bartz-Johannessen, Adrian Sayers, Parham Aram, Eugene McCloskey, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Ashley W Blom, Stein Atle Lie, Ove Nord Furnes and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Bone & joint research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
1.0field-weighted citation impact, top 22% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Lea Trela-LarsenTranslational Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Gard KrokenDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway.
Christoffer Bartz-JohannessenDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway.
Adrian SayersDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway.
Parham AramDepartment of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Eugene McCloskeyDepartment of Oncology and Metabolism, The Medical School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Visakan KadirkamanathanDepartment of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Ashley W BlomTranslational Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Stein Atle LieDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway.
Ove Nord FurnesDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway.
J Mark WilkinsonDepartment of Oncology and Metabolism, The Medical School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Haukeland University Hospital · NOUniversity of Sheffield · GBUniversity of Bristol · GBVersus Arthritis · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L01226X/1Medical Research Council MR/P020941/1Versus Arthritis 20894
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsTo develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis.

methodsA total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression.

resultsThe one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models).

conclusionSimple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article:

Indexed as

CalibrationDiscriminationFlexible parametric survival model predictionJoint arthroplastyMortality

Identifiers

PMID33179531
PMCPMC7672327
OpenAlexW3103728714

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.