ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2021
Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019-2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Safety and immunogenicity of two novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine candidates compared with a monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine in children and infants: two clinical trials.Lancet (London, England) · 2021Trial
- Quantifying the benefits of improved operations for polio outbreak response: A model-based analysis.Vaccine · 2026Article
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Increasing Population Immunity Prior to Globally-Coordinated Cessation of Bivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (bOPV).Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.Vaccine: X · 2024Article
- Immunogenicity evaluation of primary polio vaccination schedule with inactivated poliovirus vaccines and bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Article
- Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Review
- Article
- Article
- Article
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) choices and the consequences of delaying outbreak response.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.Gates open research · 2023Article
- Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Deployment of novel oral polio vaccine type 2 under emergency use listing in Nigeria: the rollout experience.The Pan African medical journal · 2023Review
- From vaccine to pathogen: Modeling Sabin 2 vaccine virus reversion and evolutionary epidemiology in Matlab, Bangladesh.Virus evolution · 2023Article
- Genetic and phenotypic stability of poliovirus shed from infants who received novel type 2 or Sabin type 2 oral poliovirus vaccines in Panama: an analysis of two clinical trials.The Lancet. Microbe · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Delays in achieving the global eradication of wild poliovirus transmission continue to postpone subsequent cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use. Countries must stop OPV use to end all cases of poliomyelitis, including vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) and cases caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs). The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of all type 2 OPV (OPV2) use in routine immunization in 2016 but did not successfully end the transmission of type 2 VDPVs (VDPV2s), and consequently continues to use type 2 OPV (OPV2) for outbreak response activities. Using an updated global poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model, we characterize outbreak response options for 2019-2029 related to responding to VDPV2 outbreaks with a genetically stabilized novel OPV (nOPV2) strain or with the currently licensed monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2). Given uncertainties about the properties of nOPV2, we model different assumptions that appear consistent with the evidence on nOPV2 to date. Using nOPV2 to respond to detected cases may reduce the expected VDPV and VAPP cases and the risk of needing to restart OPV2 use in routine immunization compared to mOPV2 use for outbreak response. The actual properties, availability, and use of nOPV2 will determine its effects on type 2 poliovirus transmission in populations. Even with optimal nOPV2 performance, countries and the GPEI would still likely need to restart OPV2 use in routine immunization in OPV-using countries if operational improvements in outbreak response to stop the transmission of cVDPV2s are not implemented effectively.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.