ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2020
COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support.
Open access · greenAbstract readPreprint
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Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7citing papers in PubMed
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Designing school reopening in the COVID-19 pre-vaccination period in Bogotá, Colombia: A modeling study.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
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- Metformin use and risk of COVID-19 among patients with type II diabetes mellitus: an NHIS-COVID-19 database cohort study.Acta diabetologica · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
78 authors at 20 institutions in 5 countries.
Katriona SheaDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Rebecca K BorcheringDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
William J M ProbertBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Emily HowertonDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Tiffany L BogichDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Shouli LiState Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Center for Grassland Microbiome, and College of Pastoral, Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China.
Willem G van PanhuisDepartment of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh.
Cecile ViboudFogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Ricardo AguásBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Artur BelovOffice of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, FDA - Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Sanjana H BhargavaDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Sean CavanyDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame.
Joshua C ChangEpidemiology and Biostatistics Section, Rehabilitation Medicine, Clinical Center, National Institutes of Health.
Cynthia ChenDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington.
Jinghui ChenDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Shi ChenDepartment of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
YangQuan ChenMechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation Laboratory, Dept. of Engineering University of California, Merced, CA, USA.
Lauren M ChildsDepartment of Mathematics, Virginia Tech.
Carson C ChowMathematical Biology Section, LBM, NIDDK, National Institutes of Health.
Isabel CrookerLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Sara Y Del ValleLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Guido EspañaDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame.
Geoffrey FairchildLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Richard C GerkinSchool of Life Sciences, Arizona State University.
Timothy C GermannLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Quanquan GuDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Xiangyang GuanDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington.
Lihong GuoInstitute of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, P. R. China.
Gregory R HartInstitute for Disease Modeling.
Thomas J HladishDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Nathaniel HupertWeill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, USA.
Daniel JaniesDepartment of Bioinformatics and Genomics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
Cliff C KerrInstitute for Disease Modeling.
Daniel J KleinInstitute for Disease Modeling.
Eili KleinDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University.
Gary LinDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University.
Carrie ManoreLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Lauren Ancel MeyersDepartment of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin.
John MittlerDepartment of Microbiology, University of Washington.
Kunpeng MuLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Rafael C NúñezInstitute for Disease Modeling.
Rachel OidtmanDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame.
Remy PascoOperations Research, The University of Texas at Austin.
Ana Pastore Y PionttiLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Rajib PaulDepartment of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
Carl A B PearsonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Centre Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Dianela R PerdomoDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
T Alex PerkinsDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame.
Kelly PierceTexas Advanced Computing Center, The University of Texas at Austin.
Alexander N PillaiDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Rosalyn Cherie RaelLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Katherine RosenfeldInstitute for Disease Modeling.
Chrysm Watson RossLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Julie A SpencerLos Alamos National Laboratory.
Arlin B StoltzfusNational Institute of Standards and Technology.
Kok Ben TohSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Shashaank VattikutiMathematical Biology Section, LBM, NIDDK, National Institutes of Health.
Alessandro VespignaniLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Lingxiao WangDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Lisa WhiteBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Pan XuDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Yupeng YangCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics, & Policy, Johns Hopkins University.
Osman N YogurtcuOffice of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, FDA - Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Weitong ZhangDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Yanting ZhaoLab of Vibration Control & Vehicle Control Department of Automation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230022, P. R. China.
Difan ZouDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Matthew FerrariDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
David PannellSchool of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia.
Michael TildesleyLife Sciences, University of Warwick.
Jack SeifarthDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Elyse JohnsonDepartment of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Matthew BiggerstaffCDC COVID-19 Response.
Michael JohanssonCDC COVID-19 Response.
Rachel B SlaytonCDC COVID-19 Response.
John LevanderDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh.
Jeff StazerDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh.
Jessica SalernoDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh.
Michael C RungeU.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, MD, USA.
Los Alamos National Laboratory · USPennsylvania State University · USUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USInstitute for Disease Modeling · USUniversity of Florida · USUniversity of Notre Dame · USUniversity of Pittsburgh · USNortheastern University · USThe University of Texas at Austin · USUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte · USUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of Washington · USCenter for Biologics Evaluation and Research · USCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy · USNational Institutes of Health · USArizona State University · USCornell University · USFogarty International Center · USJilin University · CNJohns Hopkins University · US
Funding
MIDAS Coordination CenterU24GM132013 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI HOCHHEISER, HARRY S · 2019 to 2023
$8.1MAccelerating viral outbreak detection in US cities using mechanistic models, machine learning and diverse geospatial dataR01AI151176 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.9MRFA-IP-22-004, Modeling toolkit to evaluate multifaceted control strategies for seasonal and pandemic influenzaU01IP001136 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.4MA three-population three-scale social network model to assess disease dispersionR01GM108731 · NIGMS · STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO · PI BIAN, LING, CHEN, CYNTHIA · 2015 to 2019
$2.7MNCEZID CDC HHS U01 CK000589NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001136NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151176NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM108731NIGMS NIH HHS U24 GM132013
Abstract
Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.