ArticleScientific reports2020
Modeling and forecasting the early evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers.
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Who cites it
62 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A New Auto-Regressive Multi-Variable Modified Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction: A Case Study with Application to COVID-19 Pandemics.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Is It Possible to Predict COVID-19? Stochastic System Dynamic Model of Infection Spread in Kazakhstan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Real-time estimation and forecasting of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Wisconsin HERC regions for public health decision making processes.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Modeling the impact of combined use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination to curb COVID-19 infections in South Africa.PloS one · 2023Article
- Unveiling conflicting strategies in the Brazilian response to COVID-19: A cross-sectional study using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method.Dialogues in health · 2022Article
- Estimate of the rate of unreported COVID-19 cases during the first outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Analytical investigation of compartmental models and measure for reactions of governments.The European physical journal. E, Soft matter · 2022Article
- Multi-scale causality analysis between COVID-19 cases and mobility level using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and causal decomposition.Physica A · 2022Article
- EKF-SIRD model algorithm for predicting the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading dynamics.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of alternative vaccines against COVID-19 in Brazil: Coronavac vs. Astrazeneca vs. Pfizer.Vaccine · 2022Article
- A comparative study for predictive monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic.Applied soft computing · 2022Article
- Analyzing and forecasting COVID-19 pandemic in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using ARIMA and SIR models.Computational intelligence · 2022Article
- A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Influence of state reopening policies in COVID-19 mortality.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- An algorithm for the direct estimation of the parameters of the SIR epidemic model from theEuropean physical journal plus · 2022Article
- Investigation of Factors Affecting COVID-19 and Sixth Wave Management Using a System Dynamics Approach.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2022Article
2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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2 authors.
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Abstract
We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease. We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter that comprises the effects of social distancing measures. Short and long term forecasts show that the social distancing policy imposed by the government is able to flatten the pattern of infection of the COVID-19. However, our results also show that if this policy does not last enough time, it is only able to shift the peak of infection into the future keeping the value of the peak in almost the same value. Furthermore, our long term simulations forecast the optimal date to end the policy. Finally, we show that the proportion of asymptomatic individuals affects the amplitude of the peak of symptomatic infected, suggesting that it is important to test the population.
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