ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2020
Will an outbreak exceed available resources for control? Estimating the risk from invading pathogens using practical definitions of a severe epidemic.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- From Suitability to Invasion Risk: Integrating Correlative and Mechanistic Models for Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Red Palm Weevil.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Modelling the Effects of Treatment Failure on the Minor Outbreak Duration for Carrier-Related Infectious Disease.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Exploring the role of superspreading events in SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- A simple model for how the risk of pandemics from different virus families depends on viral and human traits.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves.Biology letters · 2021Article
- Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- The effect of the definition of 'pandemic' on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.Communications medicine · 2021Article
- Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Forecasting whether or not initial reports of disease will be followed by a severe epidemic is an important component of disease management. Standard epidemic risk estimates involve assuming that infections occur according to a branching process and correspond to the probability that the outbreak persists beyond the initial stochastic phase. However, an alternative assessment is to predict whether or not initial cases will lead to a severe epidemic in which available control resources are exceeded. We show how this risk can be estimated by considering three practically relevant potential definitions of a severe epidemic; namely, an outbreak in which: (i) a large number of hosts are infected simultaneously; (ii) a large total number of infections occur; and (iii) the pathogen remains in the population for a long period. We show that the probability of a severe epidemic under these definitions often coincides with the standard branching process estimate for the major epidemic probability. However, these practically relevant risk assessments can also be different from the major epidemic probability, as well as from each other. This holds in different epidemiological systems, highlighting that careful consideration of how to classify a severe epidemic is vital for accurate epidemic risk quantification.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.