ArticleAging2020
A predictive model for the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients.
Article in Aging, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Role of platelet-to-lymphocyte count ratio (PLR), as a prognostic indicator in COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of medical virology · 2022Pooled it
- FRAGILE-COLCOVID19: A Clinical Trial Based on Early Administration of an Oral Combination of Colchicine and Prednisone in Elderly Patients with COVID-19 in Geriatric Facilities.Clinical drug investigation · 2022Trial
- Explainable machine learning-based mortality risk stratification for older adults with COVID-19: pinpointing core immunological biomarkers and revealing dose-threshold effects.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a model for early prediction of severe/critical COVID-19 in elderly patients.PeerJ · 2026Article
- COVID-19 risk stratification among older adults: a machine learning approach to identify personal and health-related risk factors.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Association of Albumin-to-D-Dimer Ratio with Mortality in Mechanically Ventilated Intensive Care Patients.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Deep learning in public health: Comparative predictive models for COVID-19 case forecasting.PloS one · 2024Article
- A predictive model for disease severity among COVID-19 elderly patients based on IgG subtypes and machine learning.Frontiers in immunology · 2023Article
- Lipase elevation on admission predicts worse clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19.Pancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.] · 2022Article
- One-Year Report of COVID-19 Impact on Geriatric Patients: a Bio-Psycho-Social Approach.Canadian geriatrics journal : CGJ · 2022Review
- Can Lung Imaging Scores and Clinical Variables Predict Severe Course and Fatal Outcome in COVID-19 Pneumonia Patients? A Single-Center Observational Study.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- COVID-19 mortality and its predictors in the elderly: A systematic review.Health science reports · 2022Review
- COVID-19 in Elderly Patients: Risk Factors for Disease Severity.Infectious diseases & clinical microbiology · 2022Article
- Gamma-glutamyl-transferase may predict COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalised patients.International journal of clinical practice · 2021Article
- Article
- Vitamin D deficiency, secondary hyperparathyroidism and respiratory insufficiency in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Journal of endocrinological investigation · 2021Article
- Prediction of COVID-19-related Mortality and 30-Day and 60-Day Survival Probabilities Using a Nomogram.Journal of Korean medical science · 2021Article
- Genome-wide screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection-related genes based on the blood leukocytes sequencing data set of patients with COVID-19.Journal of medical virology · 2021Article
- Clinical Utility of a Nomogram for Predicting 30-Days Poor Outcome in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: Multicenter External Validation and Decision Curve Analysis.Frontiers in medicine · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are more likely to develop severe or critical pneumonia, with a high fatality rate. To date, there is no model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. In this study, patients who maintained a non-severe condition and patients who progressed to severe or critical COVID-19 during hospitalization were assigned to the non-severe and severe groups, respectively. Based on the admission data of these two groups in the training cohort, albumin (odds ratio [OR] = 0.871, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.809 - 0.937, P < 0.001), d-dimer (OR = 1.289, 95% CI: 1.042 - 1.594, P = 0.019) and onset to hospitalization time (OR = 0.935, 95% CI: 0.895 - 0.977, P = 0.003) were identified as significant predictors for the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. By combining these predictors, an effective risk nomogram was established for accurate individualized assessment of the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.800 in the training cohort and 0.774 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated excellent consistency between the prediction of our nomogram and the observed curve. Decision curve analysis further showed that our nomogram conferred significantly high clinical net benefit. Collectively, our nomogram will facilitate early appropriate supportive care and better use of medical resources and finally reduce the poor outcomes of elderly COVID-19 patients.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.