ArticleScientific reports2020
The approximately universal shapes of epidemic curves in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrating mathematical modelling and artificial intelligence to combat emerging viral syndemics: A systematic review.New microbes and new infections · 2026Review
- Network-based proactive contact tracing: A pre-emptive, degree-based alerting framework for privacy-preserving COVID-19 apps.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- Infection patterns in simple and complex contagion processes on networks.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- A mathematical model for mapping the insecticide resistance trend in the Anopheles gambiae mosquito population under climate variability in Africa.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- ADDRESSING SELECTION BIAS AND MEASUREMENT ERROR IN COVID-19 CASE COUNT DATA USING AUXILIARY INFORMATION.The annals of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Testing Whether Higher Contact Among the Vaccinated Can Be a Mechanism for Observed Negative Vaccine Effectiveness.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Novel indicator for the spread of new coronavirus disease 2019 and its association with human mobility in Japan.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Direct numerical solutions of the SIR and SEIR models via the Dirichlet series approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- Modeling the impact of the Omicron infection wave in Germany.Biology methods & protocols · 2023Article
- SQEIR: An epidemic virus spread analysis and prediction model.Computers & electrical engineering : an international journal · 2022Article
- Integrating psychosocial variables and societal diversity in epidemic models for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- An extended epidemic model with vaccination: Weak-immune SIRVI.Physica A · 2022Article
- Explicit formulae for the peak time of an epidemic from the SIR model. Which approximant to use?Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- Pathogenesis, Symptomatology, and Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through Analysis of Viral Genomics and Structure.mSystems · 2021Article
- The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters: An observational study.Medicine · 2021Observational
- Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Article
- Analytical Parameter Estimation of the SIR Epidemic Model. Applications to the COVID-19 Pandemic.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- A Peek into the Inner Workings of Pandemic Prediction Models.Missouri medicineArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the approach of Harko et al. (Appl. Math. Comput. 236:184-194, 2014) is generalised to obtain an approximate semi-analytical solution of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The SEIR model curves have nearly the same shapes as the SIR ones, but with a stretch factor applied to them across time that is related to the ratio of the incubation to infectious periods. This finding implies an approximate characteristic timescale, scaled by this stretch factor, that is universal to all SEIR models, which only depends on the basic reproduction number and initial fraction of the population that is infectious.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.