ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 334 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
334 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prevalence of common respiratory viruses of infants with respiratory tract infections in European countries in the past decade: a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing between the pre-COVID-19, pandemic, and post-COVID-19 periods.European journal of pediatrics · 2026Pooled it
- Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases: a controlled interrupted time-series study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness of a structured protocol for the prevention of acute respiratory tract infections in daycare centers: A quasi-experimental study.World journal of clinical pediatrics · 2026Trial
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Bivalent RSVpreF Vaccine Coadministered With Seasonal Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Trial
- Infants Receiving a Single Dose of Nirsevimab to Prevent RSV Do Not Have Evidence of Enhanced Disease in Their Second RSV Season.Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society · 2024Trial
- Trends in respiratory virus positivity across urban and rural hospitals in Ontario over three seasons.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Leveraging perturbations to infer the population dynamics of human rhinovirus and interaction of influenza A virus.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Comprehensive profiling of humoral immune responses to pan-respiratory pathogens: Insights from diverse cohorts.iScience · 2026Article
- Post-pandemic respiratory infections in children born during or before the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide cohort study in Sweden.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Temporal trends in pediatric group A streptococcal pharyngitis across the coronavirus disease 2019 era: A large retrospective cohort study.The Journal of international medical research · 2026Article
- Death, inequality, and the pandemic in the nation's capital.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Asymmetric post-pandemic recovery of influenza A and B since 2020 in Hong Kong: an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis of weekly surveillance data with subtype and lineage characterization.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Impact of RSV Preventive Strategies on Hospitalizations for Bronchiolitis in Infants.Pediatric pulmonology · 2026Article
- Respiratory pathogen epidemiology in the post-pandemic era: a multicenter retrospective study from Saudi Arabia.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- New epidemiological characteristics of childhood IgA vasculitis in the post-COVID-19 era: a single-center retrospective cohort study.Pediatric rheumatology online journal · 2026Article
- Epidemiological trends and seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus infection in children based on sentinel hospital surveillance data.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
274 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.
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