ArticleNonlinear dynamics2020
Predicting the number of total COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil by the Gompertz model.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in India: a state-wise analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- EKF-SIRD model algorithm for predicting the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading dynamics.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Estimating the state of epidemics spreading with graph neural networks.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- Piecewise Modeling the Accumulated Daily Growth of COVID-19 Deaths: The Case of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a novel reaction-diffusion COVID-19 model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
- Article
- Predicting the number of total COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil by the Gompertz model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2020Article
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Abstract
In this work, we estimate the total number of infected and deaths by COVID-19 in Brazil and two Brazilian States (Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo). To obtain the unknown data, we use an iterative method in the Gompertz model, whose formulation is well known in the field of biology. Based on data collected from the Ministry of Health from February 26, 2020, to July 2, 2020, we predict, from July 3 to 9 and at the end of the epidemic, the number of infected and killed for the whole country and for the Brazilian states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We estimate, until July 9, 2020, a total of 1,709,755 cases and 65,384 deaths in Brazil, 331,718 cases and 15,621 deaths in Sao Paulo, 134,454 cases and 11,574 deaths in Rio de Janeiro. We also estimate the basic reproduction number
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