ArticleScience advances2020
Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States.
Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 196 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
196 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 339 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Gauging the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modeling in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.BioMed research international · 2022Pooled it
- Estimated Health Outcomes and Costs of COVID-19 Prophylaxis With Monoclonal Antibodies Among Unvaccinated Household Contacts in the US.JAMA network open · 2022Trial
- MEmilio: a high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Mobility-informed metapopulation models predict the spatio-temporal spread of respiratory epidemics across scales.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge towards reliable and immediate pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses' supply and wages.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Inferring asymptomatic carriers of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in hospitals using genomic, microbiological and patient mobility data.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Unexpected Transmission Dynamics in a University Town: Lessons From COVID-19.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2025Article
- Improving outbreak forecasts through model augmentation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Analyzing greedy vaccine allocation algorithms for metapopulation disease models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Optimizing quarantine in pandemic control: a multi-stage SEIQR modeling approach to COVID-19 transmission dynamics.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Analysis of Variants' Dynamic Using the CLIMB Database in COVID-19 Patients Admitted to Hospitals of Barts Health NHS Trust.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Immobilizing and Patterning DNA on Simplified Protein-Free DNA-Based Lateral Flow Assays.ACS omega · 2025Article
- Assessing the Impact of Haulage Drivers in Uganda's COVID-19 Delta Wave.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Behavior-driven forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 spread in New York City.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Modelling COVID-19 in the North American region with a metapopulation network and Kalman filter.Epidemics · 2025Article
- Characterizing US Spatial Connectivity and Implications for Geographical Disease Dynamics and Metapopulation Modeling: Longitudinal Observational Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Observational
136 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.