Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33156065›Full record

SynthesisAnnals of surgery2021

Time-varying Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its Implications as a Means of Disease Surveillance on Lockdown Restrictions.

Eman A Toraih, Mohammad H Hussein, Rami M Elshazli, Manal S Fawzy, August Houghton, Danielle Tatum, Mary Killackey, Emad Kandil, Juan Duchesne

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Annals of surgery, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Annual flu shot: Does it help patients with COVID-19?International journal of clinical practice · 2021
    Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Eman A ToraihDepartment of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.
Mohammad H HusseinDepartment of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.
Rami M ElshazliDepartment of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta, Egypt.
Manal S FawzyDepartment of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.
August HoughtonTulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.
Danielle TatumAcademic Research Director, Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Mary KillackeyDepartment of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.
Emad KandilDivision of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.
Juan DuchesneTrauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo quantify the time-varying reproductive rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its implication in Louisiana. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Basic reproductive number (R0) and effective reproductive number (Re or Rt) are 2 measures of the ability of an infectious agent to spread in the environment. They differ in that R0 assumes zero immunity in the population, while Re or Rt accounts for change over time. Reproductive number modeling is influenced by several factors, including serial interval, the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector, and a secondary case. Quantification of the ability of a pathogen to spread is essential in guiding policy.

methodsHere, we construct epidemic curves and calculate daily Rt values for the state of Louisiana and each of its 9 regions.

resultsOur results demonstrated variation over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. Generally, as time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values have decreased. In Louisiana, mean Rt was calculated at 3.07 in March and 0.82 by May. A reproductive number less than one is important as it indicates infectious spread will decline with time. The most recent finding of mean Rt = 0.82 is important. It stands in stark contrast to the situation in April when New Orleans, Louisiana, had the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the United States - twice that of New York City and 4 times the rate in Seattle.

conclusionAs locations around the world begin to lift restrictions, monitoring of infectious spread will be essential.

Indexed as

PandemicsSARS-CoV-2Communicable Disease ControlCOVID-19Disease Transmission, InfectiousFollow-Up StudiesHumansTime FactorsUnited States

Identifiers

PMID33156065
PMCPMC7737874

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.