ArticleHuman resources for health2020
Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling.
Article in Human resources for health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Causes and effects of hospital nursing shortages to consider potential feedback effects: an umbrella review.Human resources for health · 2025Pooled it
- Self-sufficiency in the healthcare workforce: a system dynamics model of the domestic and foreign educated nursing and midwifery workforce in Ireland.Human resources for health · 2025Article
- Estimating the Need for Pharmacist Manpower in 2032 Using Supply And Demand Analysis in Iran.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2025Article
- Pharmacists' interventions on prescribing errors in Malaysia.Journal of pharmaceutical policy and practice · 2024Article
- Impact of the increase in the number of community pharmacists on their geographical distribution in Japan: a retrospective survey.Journal of pharmaceutical policy and practice · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPharmacists play an important role in promoting people's health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population's needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists.
methodsThe future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015-2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists.
resultsThe projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist.
conclusionOptimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015-2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time.
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