Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33151722›Full record

ArticlePsychological methods2022

Bayesian estimation and model selection in group-based trajectory models.

Emma Zang, Justin T Max

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Psychological methods, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Delirium severity trajectories and survival outcome in palliative care patients.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026
    Article
  7. Impact of body weight on quality of life trajectories following metabolic bariatric surgery in individuals with obesity: a longitudinal study.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2026
    Observational
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Emma ZangDepartment of Sociology.ORCID 0000-0002-5700-3179
Justin T MaxConsumer Edge.ORCID 0000-0002-7022-9607

Funding

Yale Study Support Suite (YES3): Dashboard and Web Portal Software Supporting Research Workflow through integrated, customizable REDCap External ModulesP30AG021342 · NIA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Albert C Shaw · 2002 to 2026
$37.9M
Health, Wealth, and Wellbeing over the Life Course and Across GenerationsR01AG040213 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI FRIEDMAN, ESTHER M. · 2011 to 2025
$31.2M
Family Dynamics, Fertility, and Investments in Children Across Generations - Administrative SupplementR01HD069609 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Thomas Fraser Crossley · 2011 to 2026
$14.2M
PSID, CDS, and TA: Data Enhancements and User Training, Support, and OutreachR25HD083146 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Noura Elise Insolera · 2015 to 2026
$1.4M
National Science FoundationNIA NIH HHS P30 AG021342NIA NIH HHS R01 AG040213NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD069609NICHD NIH HHS R25 HD083146NIH HHSYale School of Medicine; Claude D. Pepper Older Americans Independence Center
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian group-based trajectory model (GBTM) and extend it to incorporate dual trajectories and Bayesian model averaging for model selection. Our framework lends itself to many of the standard distributions used in GBTMs, including normal, censored normal, binary, and ordered outcomes. On the model selection front, GBTMs require the researcher to specify a functional relationship between time and the outcome within each latent group. These relationships are generally polynomials with varying degrees in each group, but can also include additional covariates or other functions of time. When the number of groups is large, the model space can grow prohibitively complex, requiring a time-consuming brute-force search over potentially thousands of models. The approach developed in this article requires just one model fit and has the additional advantage of accounting for uncertainty in model selection. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Indexed as

AlgorithmsBayes TheoremHumansUncertainty

Identifiers

PMID33151722
PMCPMC8109259

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.