Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33149149›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Divergent serotype replacement trends and increasing diversity in pneumococcal disease in high income settings reduce the benefit of expanding vaccine valency.

Alessandra Løchen, Nicholas J Croucher, Roy M Anderson

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 107 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
107citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
9.3field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

107 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 159 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Molecular Epidemiology ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2025
    Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Prevalence ofHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024
    Pooled it
  7. Pooled it
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  10. Pooled it
  11. Trial
  12. Differences in Pneumococcal andFrontiers in immunology · 2021
    Trial
  13. Article
  14. Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in US Children by Risk Group, 1998-2023.Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society · 2026
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Severe invasive pneumococcal disease beyond current vaccination recommendations: implications for higher-valency vaccines.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026
    Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

47 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Alessandra LøchenDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK.
Nicholas J CroucherDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK. n.croucher@imperial.ac.uk.
Roy M AndersonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK.
Imperial College London · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome Trust 104169/Z/14/A
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a significant cause of otitis media, pneumonia, and meningitis. Only seven of the approximately 100 serotypes were initially included in the pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (PCV) in 2000 before it was expanded in subsequent years. Although the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence due to vaccine serotypes (VT) has declined, partial replacement by non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) was observed following widespread vaccine uptake. We conducted a trend analysis assembling the available evidence for PCV impact on European, North American and Australian national IPD. Significant effectiveness against VT IPD in infants was observed, although the impact on national IPD incidence varied internationally due to serotype replacement. Currently, NVT serotypes 8, 9N, 15A and 23B are increasing in the countries assessed, although a variety of other NVTs are affecting each country and age group. Despite these common emerging serotypes, there has not been a dominant IPD serotype post-vaccination as there was pre-vaccination (serotype 14) or post-PCV7 (serotype 19A), suggesting that future vaccines with additional serotypes will be less effective at targeting and reducing IPD in global populations than previous PCVs. The rise of diverse NVTs in all settings' top-ranked IPD-causing serotypes emphasizes the urgent need for surveillance data on serotype distribution and serotype-specific invasiveness post-vaccination to facilitate decision making concerning both expanding current vaccination programmes and increasing vaccine valency.

Indexed as

AdultAustraliaEuropeFemaleHeptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate VaccineHumansIncidenceInfantMaleNorth AmericaPneumococcal InfectionsPneumococcal VaccinesSerogroupStreptococcus pneumoniaeHeptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate VaccinePneumococcal Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID33149149
PMCPMC7643077
OpenAlexW3096128412

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.