Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33148212›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2020

Increasing trends in incidence of preterm birth among 2.5 million newborns in Guangzhou, China, 2001 to 2016: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Jinhua Lu, Dongmei Wei, Songying Shen, Xiaoyan Xia, Jianrong He, Yan Sun, Kin Bong Hubert Lam, Wei Bao, Huimin Xia, Xiu Qiu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 14% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Analysis of adverse pregnancy outcomes among pregnant women in Hunan Province from 2015 to 2023: Incidence, temporal trends, and risk factors.Zhong nan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Central South University. Medical sciences · 2026
    Article
  4. Nurse-Driven Quality Indicators for Neonatal Intensive Care: A Delphi Consensus on Family-Integrated Priorities in NICUs.Advances in neonatal care : official journal of the National Association of Neonatal Nurses · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.

Jinhua LuDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Dongmei WeiDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Songying ShenDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Xiaoyan XiaDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Jianrong HeDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Yan SunDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Kin Bong Hubert LamNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Wei BaoDepartment of Epidemiology, College of public health, The University of Iowa, Iowa, USA.
Huimin XiaDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China.
Xiu QiuDivision of Birth Cohort Study, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510623, Guangdong, China. xiu.qiu@bigcs.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-229X
Guangzhou Medical University · CNUniversity of Oxford · GBGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention · CNGuangzhou Women and Children Medical Center · CNUniversity of Iowa · US

Funding

Guangzhou Science, Technology and Innovation Commission (CN) 201807010086National Natural Science Foundation of China 81673181National Natural Science Foundation of China 81803251
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe incidence of preterm birth (PTB, < 37 weeks of gestation) has been increasing in China and many other countries in recent years. However, the causes of the increase were not well understood. The current study aims to examine the contribution of maternal age, period of delivery, and maternal birth cohorts to long-term trends in preterm birth in Guangzhou, China.

methodsIn a retrospective population-based study, data were obtained from 2,535,000 singleton live births with 20-43 gestational weeks from 2001 to 2016 and recorded in the Guangzhou Perinatal Health Care and Delivery Surveillance System, in China. The age-period-cohort models were applied to investigate the temporal changes in incidences of PTB, stratified by parity.

resultsThe incidence of preterm birth steadily increased from 5.1% in 2001 to 5.9% in 2016, with larger rise in primiparous mothers (from 5.0 to 5.9%) compared to multiparous mothers (from 5.6 to 5.9%). A J-shaped and a V-shaped relationship were found between maternal age and PTB among primiparous and multiparous mothers, respectively. A linear cohort effect was found among primiparous mothers with the lowest risk of PTB [risk ratio (RR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74 to 0.89] in 1961 and the highest risk (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.13) in 1997 compared to the mothers born in 1981. An inverse U-shaped association between maternal birth cohort and PTB was found in multiparous mothers. There were weak decreasing period effects on the trend of overall PTB among multiparous mothers and on the trend of extremely (< 27 weeks) or very (28-31 weeks) PTB among both parity groups during the period of 2001-2012.

conclusionsOur findings showed the PTB incidences had been increasing in the past 16 years in Guangzhou, China and both maternal age and cohort effects contributed to these trends. Further studies are recommended on the impact of altered maternal age and parity on premature births and corresponding public education and public health policies.

Indexed as

Maternal AgeParityAdultChinaCohort StudiesFemaleGestational AgeHumansIncidenceInfant, NewbornLive BirthMaleMothersPregnancyPremature BirthRetrospective StudiesAge-period-cohort analysisEpidemiologyParityPreterm birthSecular trends

Identifiers

PMID33148212
PMCPMC7640687
OpenAlexW3097596485

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.