ArticleThe Indian journal of medical research
Modelling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - Impact of lockdowns & interventions.
Article in The Indian journal of medical research. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Models for SARS-CoV-2 health policies: social distancing amid vaccination and virus variants.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic in Malegaon: SUTRA over the Three Waves.Indian journal of microbiology · 2023Article
- COVID-19 and Global Distributive Justice: 'Health Diplomacy' of India and South Africa for the TRIPS waiver.Journal of Asian and African studies · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The making of India's COVID-19 disaster: A Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Assemblage analysis.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2023Review
- Effect of hybrid immunity, school reopening, and the Omicron variant on the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in India: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2023Article
- Epidemic efficacy of Covid-19 vaccination against Omicron: An innovative approach using enhanced residual recurrent neural network.PloS one · 2023Article
- Prediction of COVID-19 Infected Population for Indian States through a State Interaction Network-based SEIR Epidemic Model.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutations reveals regional-specificity and similar trends of N501 and high-frequency mutation N501Y in different levels of control measures.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Through the Lens of Modeling.Global health, science and practice · 2021Article
- Tracking SARS-CoV-2 infection in India with serology.The Lancet. Global health · 2021Article
- Universal Epidemic Curve for COVID-19 and Its Usage for Forecasting.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2021Article
- Pandemics, COVID-19 and India.Indian economic review · 2020Article
- Authors' response.The Indian journal of medical researchArticle
- Modelling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - Is this even close to a supermodel?The Indian journal of medical researchArticle
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
objectivesTo handle the current COVID-19 pandemic in India, multiple strategies have been applied and implemented to slow down the virus transmission. These included clinical management of active cases, rapid development of treatment strategies, vaccines computational modelling and statistical tools to name a few. This article presents a mathematical model for a time series prediction and analyzes the impact of the lockdown.
methodsSeveral existing mathematical models were not able to account for asymptomatic patients, with limited testing capability at onset and no data on serosurveillance. In this study, a new model was used which was developed on lines of susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered (SAIR) to assess the impact of the lockdown and make predictions on its future course. Four parameters were used, namely β, γ, η and ε. β measures the likelihood of the susceptible person getting infected, and γ denotes recovery rate of patients. The ratio β/γ is denoted by R
resultsThe disease spread was reduced due to initial lockdown. An increase in γ reflects healthcare and hospital services, medications and protocols put in place. In Delhi, the predictions from the model were corroborated with July and September serosurveys, which showed antibodies in 23.5 and 33 per cent population, respectively. INTERPRETATION &
conclusionsThe SAIR model has helped understand the disease better. If the model is correct, we may have reached herd immunity with about 380 million people already infected. However, personal protective measures remain crucial. If there was no lockdown, the number of active infections would have peaked at close to 14.7 million, resulted in more than 2.6 million deaths, and the peak would have arrived by June 2020. The number of deaths with the current trends may be less than 0.2 million.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.