ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Predicting an epidemic trajectory is difficult.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The tale of two assumptions: incorporating healthcare-seeking behaviour in epidemic forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Human behavior and disease dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Inferring China's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using online mourning and funeral search volume.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Stochastic simulation of successive waves of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Likelihood-based estimation and prediction for a measles outbreak in Samoa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Effective pandemic policy design through feedback does not need accurate predictions.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- The future of evolutionary medicine: sparking innovation in biomedicine and public health.Frontiers in science · 2023Article
- Host age structure reshapes parasite symbiosis: collaboration begets pathogens, competition begets virulent mutualists.Biology direct · 2022Article
- National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Bayesian sequential data assimilation for COVID-19 forecasting.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Enhancing long-term forecasting: Learning from COVID-19 models.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Model-based ensembles: Lessons learned from retrospective analysis of COVID-19 infection forecasts across 10 countries.The Science of the total environment · 2022Article
- Modeling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 under non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2022Article
- COVIDHunter: COVID-19 Pandemic Wave Prediction and Mitigation via Seasonality Aware Modeling.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Commentary on "Transparent modeling of influenza incidence": Because the model said so.International journal of forecastingArticle
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.