Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33139773›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Network inference from population-level observation of epidemics.

F Di Lauro, J-C Croix, M Dashti, L Berthouze, I Z Kiss

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

F Di LauroDepartment of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK.
J-C CroixDepartment of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK.
M DashtiDepartment of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK.
L BerthouzeDepartment of Informatics, University of Sussex, Falmer, BN1 9QH, UK.
I Z KissDepartment of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK. i.z.kiss@sussex.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Using the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on networks, we investigate the problem of inferring the class of the underlying network when epidemic data is only available at population-level (i.e., the number of infected individuals at a finite set of discrete times of a single realisation of the epidemic), the only information likely to be available in real world settings. To tackle this, epidemics on networks are approximated by a Birth-and-Death process which keeps track of the number of infected nodes at population level. The rates of this surrogate model encode both the structure of the underlying network and disease dynamics. We use extensive simulations over Regular, Erdős-Rényi and Barabási-Albert networks to build network class-specific priors for these rates. We then use Bayesian model selection to recover the most likely underlying network class, based only on a single realisation of the epidemic. We show that the proposed methodology yields good results on both synthetic and real-world networks.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationNeural Networks, ComputerPopulationBayes TheoremCommunicable DiseasesEpidemicsHumansModels, Statistical

Identifiers

PMID33139773
PMCPMC7606546

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.