Distractor probabilities modulate flanker task performance.

Expectations about upcoming events help humans to effectively filter out potential distractors and respond more efficiently to task-relevant inputs. While previous work has emphasized the role of expectations about task-relevant inputs, less is known about the role that expectations play in suppressing specific distractors. To address this question, we manipulated the probabilities of different flanker configurations in the Eriksen flanker task. Across four studies, we found robust evidence for sensitivity to the probability of flankers, with an approximately logarithmic relationship between the likelihood of a particular flanker configuration and the accuracy of subjects' responses. Subjects were also sensitive to length of runs of repeated targets, but minimally sensitive to length of runs of repeated flankers. Two studies used chevron stimuli, and two used letters (confirming that results generalize with greater dissimilarity between stimuli). Expanding the set of stimuli (thus reducing the dominance of any one exemplar) eliminated the effect. Our findings suggest that expectations about distractors form in response to statistical regularities at multiple timescales, and that their effects are strongest when stimuli are geometrically similar and subjects are able to respond to trials quickly. Unexpected distractors could disrupt performance, most likely via a form of attentional capture. This work demonstrates how expectations can influence attention in complex cognitive settings, and illuminates the multiple, nested factors that contribute.