ArticleEClinicalMedicine2020
The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis.
Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 201 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
201 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 334 citations in OpenAlex.
- The prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin-resistance strains using GeneXpert-MTB/RIF assay in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Inequalities in the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis diagnosis by age and sex in 45 high TB burden countries.BMC medicine · 2022Pooled it
- The prevalence of tuberculosis and malaria in minority indigenous populations of South- East Asia and the Western Pacific Region: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Pathogens and global health · 2022Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Tuberculosis screening costs and cost-effectiveness in high-risk groups: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Pooled it
- User perspectives on the Molbio Truenat platform and tuberculosis assays for decentralised testing in Mozambique and Tanzania.BMJ global health · 2026Trial
- Accuracy of ESAT6-CFP10 skin test compared with tuberculin skin test in a healthy population: a randomized, blind, parallel controlled phase III clinical study.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Trial
- Trial
- Impact of COVID-19 on TB and HIV/AIDS severity in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.Dialogues in health · 2026Review
- Quality, content, and engagement of pulmonary tuberculosis related videos on Douyin: a cross-sectional study.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal trends in tuberculosis incidence in Thailand, 2012-2023: a nationwide, province-level analysis.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis mortality in Japan: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from 2017 to 2022.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Effectiveness and challenges of DOT in multidrug-resistant TB: a 12-year retrospective study.Public health action · 2026Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis epidemiology in California, Florida, New York, and Texas.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2026Article
- Impact of comorbid diseases and associated factors on tuberculosis treatment outcomes among tuberculosis patients in South West Oromia, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis notifications among children and young adolescents, 2008-2019 compared to 2020-2023, Brazil.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Outcomes in the United States: A Bayesian Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Impact of a TB epidemic on worker and firm productivity: the regional perspective from Ukraine.Journal of population economics · 2026Article
- Integration of HIV, Hepatitis B, and C, and sexually transmitted infections services: A scoping review of the benefits and challenges.PloS one · 2026Article
- Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in China during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period (2017-2019).Nature communications · 2025Article
141 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRoutine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated.
methodsWe adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact.
findingsEven temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06-1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333-394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100-44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8-17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826-6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815-1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary "catch-up" TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased.
interpretationLockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted.
fundingUSAID and Stop TB Partnership.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.