ArticleCrime science2020
Disentangling community-level changes in crime trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chicago.
Article in Crime science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed.
- Fear and Challenging Behaviour: A Phenomenological-Hermeneutic Study of Public Mass Shooting Attacks During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand.Nursing open · 2026Article
- Effects of Pandemic Response Measures on Crime Counts in English and Welsh Local Authorities.Applied spatial analysis and policy · 2025Article
- The ecological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime trends in Kerman Province of Iran.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Carjacking and homicide in Minneapolis after the police killing of George Floyd: Evidence from an interrupted time series analysis.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2024Article
- Spatial Analysis of Health System Factors in Infectious Disease Management: Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Korea.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- The Effects of Vocational Education on Recidivism and Employment Among Individuals Released Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology · 2023Article
- The Impact of Urban Facilities on Crime during the Pre- and Pandemic Periods: A Practical Study in Beijing.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Geographic disparities in violent crime during the COVID-19 lockdown in Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2018-2020.Journal of experimental criminology · 2023Article
- Racial Disparities in Crime Victimization during the COVID-19 Lockdown.American journal of criminal justice : AJCJ · 2023Article
- Disentangling the Impact of Covid-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime in New York City.American journal of criminal justice : AJCJ · 2023Article
- Effects of the Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Assault-Related Head Injury in Melbourne: A Retrospective Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The Effect of COVID-19 Restrictions on Routine Activities and Online Crime.Journal of quantitative criminology · 2022Article
- The Effect of COVID-19 on Domestic Violence and Assaults.Criminal justice review · 2022Article
- The spatial dynamics of commercial burglary during the COVID-19 lockdown in San Francisco.Journal of experimental criminology · 2022Article
- Homicide rates are spatially associated with built environment and socio-economic factors: a study in the neighbourhoods of Toronto, Canada.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Down with the sickness? Los Angeles burglary and COVID-19 restrictions.Journal of experimental criminology · 2022Article
- Crime and deviance during the COVID-19 pandemic.Sociology compass · 2022Review
- Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia.The International journal on drug policy · 2022Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on the spatial distribution of shooting violence in Buffalo, NY.Journal of experimental criminology · 2022Article
- In a world called catastrophe: the impact of COVID-19 on neighbourhood level crime in Vancouver, Canada.Journal of experimental criminology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Recent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance our understanding on how public interventions affected criminal activities at a finer spatial scale. The analysis relies on a two-step methodology. First, it estimates the community-wise causal impact of social distancing and shelter-in-place policies adopted in Chicago via Structural Bayesian Time-Series across four crime categories (i.e., burglary, assault, narcotics-related offenses, and robbery). Once the models detected the direction, magnitude and significance of the trend changes, Firth's Logistic Regression is used to investigate the factors associated to the statistically significant crime reduction found in the first step of the analyses. Statistical results first show that changes in crime trends differ across communities and crime types. This suggests that beyond the results of aggregate models lies a complex picture characterized by diverging patterns. Second, regression models provide mixed findings regarding the correlates associated with significant crime reduction: several relations have opposite directions across crimes with population being the only factor that is stably and positively associated with significant crime reduction.
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