Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33131065›Full record

ArticleAlimentary pharmacology & therapeutics2021

Machine learning identifies novel blood protein predictors of penetrating and stricturing complications in newly diagnosed paediatric Crohn's disease.

Ryan C Ungaro, Liangyuan Hu, Jiayi Ji, Shikha Nayar, Subra Kugathasan, Lee A Denson, Jeffrey Hyams, Marla C Dubinsky, Bruce E Sands, Judy H Cho

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.0field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 43 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Biomarkers for the Prediction and Diagnosis of Fibrostenosing Crohn's Disease: A Systematic Review.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2022
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  17. Early subclinical stages of the inflammatory bowel diseases: insights from human and animal studies.American journal of physiology. Gastrointestinal and liver physiology · 2025
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  19. Plasma protein-based and polygenic risk scores serve complementary roles in predicting inflammatory bowel disease.Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing. Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Ryan C UngaroThe Henry D. Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8687-3758
Liangyuan HuDepartment of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Jiayi JiDepartment of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Shikha NayarDepartment of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Subra KugathasanDepartment of Pediatrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Lee A DensonDivision of Pediatric Gastroenterology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Jeffrey HyamsDivision of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Connecticut Children's Medical Center, Hartford, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9769-236X
Marla C DubinskyDepartment of Pediatrics, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Bruce E SandsThe Henry D. Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Judy H ChoDepartment of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai · USCincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center · USConnecticut Children's Medical Center · USEmory University · US

Funding

Yale University Inflammatory Bowel Disease Genetics Research CenterU01DK062422 · NIDDK · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Ling-shiang Chuang · 2002 to 2026
$10.8M
Integrative Genomic Analyses of Macrophages in Crohns DiseaseR01DK106593 · NIDDK · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI CHO, JUDY H. · 2016 to 2020
$3.8M
Assessing Predictors of Response to Anti-Tumor Necrosis Alpha Therapy in Early Crohns DiseaseK23DK111995 · NIDDK · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI UNGARO, RYAN · 2019 to 2023
$948k
NIDDK NIH HHS K23 DK111995NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK106593NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK062422NIH HHS R01 DK106593NIH HHS U01 DK062422
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere is a need for improved risk stratification in Crohn's disease.

aimTo identify novel blood protein biomarkers associated with future Crohn's disease complications

methodsWe performed a case-cohort study utilising a paediatric inception cohort, the Risk Stratification and Identification of Immunogenetic and Microbial Markers of Rapid Disease Progression in Children with Crohn's disease (RISK) study. All patients had inflammatory disease (B1) at baseline. Outcomes were development of stricturing (B2) or penetrating (B3) complications. We assayed 92 inflammation-related proteins in baseline plasma using a proximity extension assay (Olink Proteomics). An ensemble machine learning technique, random survival forests (RSF), selected variables predicting B2 and B3 complications. Selected analytes were compared to clinical variables and serology only models. We examined selected proteins in a single-cell sequencing cohort to analyse differential cell expression in blood and ileum.

resultsWe included 265 patients with mean age 11.6 years (standard deviation [SD] 3.2). Seventy-three and 34 patients, respectively, had B2 and B3 complications within mean 1123 (SD 477) days for B2 and 1251 (442) for B3. A model with 5 protein markers predicted B3 complications with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.82) compared to 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.72) for serologies and 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.77) for clinical variables. A model with 4 protein markers predicted B2 complications with an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.65-0.71) compared to 0.62 (95% CI 0.59-0.65) for serologies and 0.52 (95% CI 0.50-0.55) for clinical variables. B2 analytes were highly expressed in ileal stromal cells while B3 analytes were prominent in peripheral blood and ileal T cells.

conclusionsWe identified novel blood proteomic markers, distinct for B2 and B3, associated with progression of paediatric Crohn's disease.

Indexed as

Crohn DiseaseBlood ProteinsChildCohort StudiesHumansMachine LearningProteomicsBlood Proteins

Identifiers

PMID33131065
PMCPMC7770008
OpenAlexW3096001285

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.