ArticleHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics2021
The estimated impact of decreased childhood vaccination due to COVID-19 using a dynamic transmission model of mumps in Japan.
Article in Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Policy and practice of checking vaccination status at school in 2018, a global overview.Vaccine · 2022Article
- Impact of local vaccine subsidization programs on the prevention of mumps in Japan.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- The estimated burden of 15 vaccine-preventable diseases from 2008 to 2020 in Japan: A transition by the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of infection and chemotherapy : official journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy · 2021Article
- Article
- The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
The exact impact of the decline in childhood vaccination coverage during COVID-19 outbreak has not been estimated for any vaccine-preventable diseases. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of decreased mumps vaccination due to COVID-19 on the disease burden of mumps in Japan. Using a previously validated dynamic transmission model of mumps infection in Japan, the incidence rate of mumps over the next 30 y since July 2020 was estimated. The estimated average incidences were 269.1, 302.0, and 455.4/100,000 person-years in rapid recovery, slow recovery, and permanent decline scenarios. Compared with the rapid recovery scenario, the incremental number of mumps cases, total costs, and QALYs loss over the next 30 y were 6.53 million cases, 2.63 billion USD, and 49,246 for the permanent decline scenario, respectively. In conclusion, the persistent decline of mumps vaccination rate as an impact of COVID-19 causes a significant incremental disease burden of mumps, which is consistent irrespective of the possible decline of transmission rate of mumps infection, unless the rapid recovery of coverage rate is achieved. The immediate measures to advocate the vaccination program is essential to mitigate the incremental disease burden in the COVID-19 period.
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