ArticleOsong public health and research perspectives2020
Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis.
Article in Osong public health and research perspectives, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pertussis resurgence in iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis of seroimmunity and diagnostic evidence.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Burden of pertussis in infants in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and the impact of maternal vaccination: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- Immunogenicity and Safety of a Newly Developed Tetanus-Diphtheria Toxoid (Td) in Healthy Korean Adolescents: a Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Active-Controlled Phase 3 Trial.Journal of Korean medical science · 2021Trial
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThe purpose of the current study was to determine the upper threshold number of cases for which pertussis infection would reach an outbreak level nationally in Iran.
methodsData on suspected cases of pertussis from the 25
resultsIn total, 2,577 (33.6%) and 1,714 (22.3%) cases were reported in the Spring and Summer respectively. There were 1,417 (18.5%) and 1,971 (25.6%) cases reported in the Autumn and Winter, respectively. The overall upper threshold using the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods, was estimated as a daily occurrence of 8 (7.55) and 7.50 (4.48-11.06) suspected cases per 10,000,000 people, respectively. The daily seasonal thresholds estimated by the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods were 10, 7, 6, 8 cases and 10, 7, 7, 9 cases for the Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter, respectively.
conclusionThe overall and seasonal estimated thresholds by the 2 methods were similar. Therefore, the estimated thresholds of 6-10 cases in a day, per 10,000,000 people could be used to detect pertussis outbreaks and epidemics by health policymakers.
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