ArticleRisk management and healthcare policy2020
COVID-19 in Shanghai: IPC Policy Exploration in Support of Work Resumption Through System Dynamics Modeling.
Article in Risk management and healthcare policy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Returning to Work after the COVID-19 Pandemic Earthquake: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases in China under the One Health framework.Science in One Health · 2025Review
- Addressing Hospital Overwhelm During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Using a Primary Health Care-Based Integrated Health System: Modeling Study.JMIR medical informatics · 2024Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Which Matters More in Fighting COVID-19-Government Policy or Community Participation?Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Policy choices for Shanghai responding to challenges of Omicron.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Optimizing national border reopening policies in the COVID-19 pandemic: A modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Investigating the effectiveness of re-opening policies before vaccination during a pandemic: SD modelling research based on COVID-19 in Wuhan.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Characterizing the patterns of China's policies against COVID-19: A bibliometric study.Information processing & management · 2021Article
- COVID-19 and Return-To-Work for the Construction Sector: Lessons From Singapore.Safety and health at work · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
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Abstract
purposeIt is unclear how and to what extent various infection prevention and control (IPC) policies affect the spread of an epidemic during work resumption. In order to assess the impact of IPC policies, this research addresses the results of a policy simulation in Shanghai, China, which estimates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under various IPC policies and offers evidence-based outcomes of work resumption policies for the world. MATERIALS AND
methodsThis simulation research is based on a system dynamics (SD) model that integrates IPC work resumption policies implemented in Shanghai into the classical susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) epidemiological model. Input data were obtained from official websites, the Baidu migration index and published literature. The SD model was validated by comparing results with real-world data.
resultsThe simulations show that a non-quarantined and non-staged approach to work resumption (Policy 1) would bring a small secondary outbreak of COVID-19. The quarantined but non-staged approach (Policy 2) and the non-quarantined but staged approach (Policy 3) would not bring a secondary outbreak of COVID-19. However, they both would generate more newly confirmed cases than the staged and quarantined approach (Policy 4). Moreover, the 14-day quarantine policy alone appears to be more effective in reducing transmission risk than the staged work resumption policy alone. The combined staged and quarantined IPC policy led to the fewest confirmed cases caused by work resumption in Shanghai, and the spread of COVID-19 stopped (ie, the number of newly confirmed cases reduced to zero) at the earliest date.
conclusionConservative IPC policies can prevent a second outbreak of COVID-19 during work resumption. The dynamic systems model designed in this study can serve as a tool to test various IPC work resumption policies, facilitating decision-making in responses to combating the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.