ArticleBMJ open2020
Theoretical reduction of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Colombia from reduction in the population exposure to tobacco, alcohol, excess weight and sedentary lifestyle: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Deactivation of CK1α enhances the anti-cancer effects of salinomycin in colorectal cancer HCT116 cells.Biochemistry and biophysics reports · 2025Article
- Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050.Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer CenterArticle
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimsTo determine the potential impact fraction of alcohol and tobacco consumption, high body mass index and low physical activity on colorectal cancer burden in Colombia for the period 2016-2050.
methodsBased on age-specific and sex-specific data on colorectal cancer incidence, data from population-based surveys for the exposure data and population projections, the macrosimulation model Prevent V.3.01 was used to model expected colorectal cancer incidence for the period 2016-2050. Baseline models were those where exposure levels were not subject to change because of interventions. Two intervention scenarios were specified: one with elimination of exposure to the risk factor as of 2017 and a second one where over a 10-year period the current prevalence data gradually declined until they reach 90% of the 2016 levels.
resultsUnder the reference scenarios, a total number of 274 637 colorectal cancers would be expected to occur in the period 2016-2050. Under the scenario of 10% gradual decline in the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco consumption, physical inactivity and high body mass index, a total of 618, 488, 2954 and 2086 new cases, respectively, would be avoided. Under scenarios of elimination, these numbers of avoided cases would be 6908 (elimination alcohol), 6104 (elimination tobacco), 16 637 (optimizing physical inactivity) and 25 089 (all on ideal weight).
conclusionsIn order to reduce the burden of colorectal cancer, it is important to take measures to halt the current trends of increasing sedentary behaviour and overweight in the Colombian population. Proportionally, alcohol and tobacco consumption are less important population risk factors for colorectal cancer.
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