ArticleEpidemiology and infection2020
Excess mortality in the United States during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed.
- Deep disadvantage in mortality on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Harvesting Effect and Extreme Temperature-Related Mortality in Italy.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2026Article
- A Comparison of Willingness to Report to Work, Psychological Distress, and Coping Strategies among Medical Interns in a COVID-referral Hospital in Metro Manila: A Cross-sectional Study.Acta medica Philippina · 2026Article
- The impact of the pandemic on non-COVID-19 causes of death in the United States: a multiple cause of death analysis.European journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections and otitis media, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Death Determination Methods, Minnesota, USA, 2020-2022Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Using Public Funeral and Obituary Listings to Identify Spikes in Excess Mortality in One Appalachian County.Journal of Appalachian health · 2024Article
- Comparing methods to predict baseline mortality for excess mortality calculations.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
- Adjusting expected deaths for mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic: a model based counterfactual approach at the level of individuals.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
- Constructing a Learning Curve to Discuss the Medical Treatments and the Effect of Vaccination of COVID-19.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Changes in all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality before and after the Omicron outbreak of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.Journal of global health · 2023Article
- Changes in the Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Disaggregated Analysis by Region and Hospital Type in Korea.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2023Article
- Impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID inpatient care in southern Spain.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- COVID-19-Specific Mortality among World Trade Center Health Registry Enrollees Who Resided in New York City.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations.Economic modelling · 2022Article
- Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 deaths using a Markov switching-volatility model combined with heavy-tailed distributions for South Africa.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Application of Bayesian spatial-temporal models for estimating unrecognized COVID-19 deaths in the United States.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Infodemiological study on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on increased headache incidences at the world level.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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Abstract
Deaths are frequently under-estimated during emergencies, times when accurate mortality estimates are crucial for emergency response. This study estimates excess all-cause, pneumonia and influenza mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic using the 11 September 2020 release of weekly mortality data from the United States (U.S.) Mortality Surveillance System (MSS) from 27 September 2015 to 9 May 2020, using semiparametric and conventional time-series models in 13 states with high reported COVID-19 deaths and apparently complete mortality data: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Washington. We estimated greater excess mortality than official COVID-19 mortality in the U.S. (excess mortality 95% confidence interval (CI) 100 013-127 501 vs. 78 834 COVID-19 deaths) and 9 states: California (excess mortality 95% CI 3338-6344) vs. 2849 COVID-19 deaths); Connecticut (excess mortality 95% CI 3095-3952) vs. 2932 COVID-19 deaths); Illinois (95% CI 4646-6111) vs. 3525 COVID-19 deaths); Louisiana (excess mortality 95% CI 2341-3183 vs. 2267 COVID-19 deaths); Massachusetts (95% CI 5562-7201 vs. 5050 COVID-19 deaths); New Jersey (95% CI 13 170-16 058 vs. 10 465 COVID-19 deaths); New York (95% CI 32 538-39 960 vs. 26 584 COVID-19 deaths); and Pennsylvania (95% CI 5125-6560 vs. 3793 COVID-19 deaths). Conventional model results were consistent with semiparametric results but less precise. Significant excess pneumonia deaths were also found for all locations and we estimated hundreds of excess influenza deaths in New York. We find that official COVID-19 mortality substantially understates actual mortality, excess deaths cannot be explained entirely by official COVID-19 death counts. Mortality reporting lags appeared to worsen during the pandemic, when timeliness in surveillance systems was most crucial for improving pandemic response.
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