ArticlePloS one2020
Estimation of the percentages of undiagnosed patients of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Hokkaido, Japan by using birth-death process with recursive full tracing.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Socioeconomic inequalities in healthcare system efficiency in Japan during COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of the moderating role of vaccination.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Parameter estimation for contact tracing in graph-based models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Estimation of viral kinetics model parameters in young and aged SARS-CoV-2 infected macaques.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Impact of Lockdown Measures and Meteorological Parameters on the COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Rate in Bangladesh.Infectious microbes & diseases · 2021Article
- Assessing the Effectiveness of Isolation and Contact-Tracing Interventions for Early Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in South Korea.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
- The Impact of the Declaration of the State of Emergency on the Spread of COVID-19: A Modeling Analysis.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2021Article
- Contact tracing - Old models and new challenges.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Community venue exposure risk estimator for the COVID-19 pandemic.Health & place · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Estimating the percentages of undiagnosed and asymptomatic patients is essential for controlling the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, and for assessing any strategy for controlling the disease. In this paper, we propose a novel analysis based on the birth-death process with recursive full tracing. We estimated the numbers of undiagnosed symptomatic patients and the lower bound of the number of total infected individuals per diagnosed patient before and after the declaration of the state of emergency in Hokkaido, Japan. The median of the estimated number of undiagnosed symptomatic patients per diagnosed patient decreased from 1.7 to 0.77 after the declaration, and the median of the estimated lower bound of the number of total infected individuals per diagnosed patient decreased from 4.2 to 2.4. We will discuss the limitations and possible expansions of the model.
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