Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33112403›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical entomology2021

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations.

Nicholas H Ogden, C Ben Beard, Howard S Ginsberg, Jean I Tsao

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical entomology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 125 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
125citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

125 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 235 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  11. CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Climate change and emerging diseases: challenges for physicians in Canada.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Surveillance forCanada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2026
    Article
  19. Changing case definition: An analysis of its impact on Lyme disease surveillance in Nova Scotia.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2026
    Article
  20. Article

65 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Nicholas H OgdenPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada.
C Ben BeardDivision of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO.
Howard S GinsbergU.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Rhode Island Field Station, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI.
Jean I TsaoDepartment of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention · USMichigan State University · USPublic Health Agency of Canada · CAUniversity of Rhode Island · US

Funding

Intramural CDC HHS CC999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

Indexed as

Animal DistributionClimate ChangeAltitudeAnimalsArachnid VectorsClimateHumansPopulation DensityTick-Borne DiseasesTicksWeatherclimate changedistributionIxodidaetick-borne pathogenticks

Identifiers

PMID33112403
PMCPMC9620468
OpenAlexW3096415143

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.