ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2021
Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States : A Simulation Modeling Approach.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
47 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 77 citations in OpenAlex.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Racial Discrimination Predicting Sleep: Examining Social Media and Television/Digital Media use During the COVID-19 Pandemic as Moderators among College Students of Color.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2026Article
- Effects of COVID-19 on parental perception of children's oral health-related quality of life.Brazilian oral research · 2026Article
- Synthetic population generation with public health characteristics for spatial agent-based models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Cognitively-plausible reinforcement learning in epidemiological agent-based simulations.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy after stroke: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2024Observational
- GLIPR2: a potential biomarker and therapeutic target unveiled - Insights from extensive pan-cancer analyses, with a spotlight on lung adenocarcinoma.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Article
- Article
- Multisite evaluation of prediction models for emergency department crowding before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2023Article
- Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV-2.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2022Article
- COVID-19 exit strategy during vaccine implementation: a balance between social distancing and herd immunity.Archives of virology · 2022Review
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Associations between COVID-19 Pandemic, Lockdown Measures and Human Mobility: Longitudinal Evidence from 86 Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The influence of mask use on the spread of COVID-19 during pandemic in New York City.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Using behavioural theory to understand adherence to behaviours that reduce transmission of COVID-19; evidence from the CHARIS representative national study.British journal of health psychology · 2022Article
- Injury mortality and morbidity changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Policy and behavioral response to shock events: An agent-based model of the effectiveness and equity of policy design features.PloS one · 2022Article
- Adhering to COVID-19 health guidelines: A behavioral-failure perspective.Frontiers in psychology · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAcross the United States, various social distancing measures were implemented to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the effectiveness of such measures for specific regions with varying population demographic characteristics and different levels of adherence to social distancing is uncertain.
objectiveTo determine the effect of social distancing measures in unique regions.
designAn agent-based simulation model.
settingAgent-based model applied to Dane County, Wisconsin; the Milwaukee metropolitan (metro) area; and New York City (NYC). PATIENTS: Synthetic population at different ages.
interventionDifferent times for implementing and easing social distancing measures at different levels of adherence. MEASUREMENTS: The model represented the social network and interactions among persons in a region, considering population demographic characteristics, limited testing availability, "imported" infections, asymptomatic disease transmission, and age-specific adherence to social distancing measures. The primary outcome was the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.
resultsThe timing of and adherence to social distancing had a major effect on COVID-19 occurrence. In NYC, implementing social distancing measures 1 week earlier would have reduced the total number of confirmed cases from 203 261 to 41 366 as of 31 May 2020, whereas a 1-week delay could have increased the number of confirmed cases to 1 407 600. A delay in implementation had a differential effect on the number of cases in the Milwaukee metro area versus Dane County, indicating that the effect of social distancing measures varies even within the same state. LIMITATION: The effect of weather conditions on transmission dynamics was not considered.
conclusionThe timing of implementing and easing social distancing measures has major effects on the number of COVID-19 cases. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.