Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33103108›Full record

ArticleGlobal epidemiology2020

Impact assessment of full and partial stay-at-home orders, face mask usage, and contact tracing: An agent-based simulation study of COVID-19 for an urban region.

Hanisha Tatapudi, Rachita Das, Tapas K Das

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Global epidemiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Effects of Using the Surgical Mask and FFP2 during the 6-Min Walking Test. A Randomized Controlled Trial.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Trial
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. A COVID-19 vaccination program for high-risk children aged 12-17 years in Curacao.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2023
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Dynamical Analysis of Universal Masking on the Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Observational
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Hanisha TatapudiDepartment of Industrial and Management System Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Rachita DasMiller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
Tapas K DasDepartment of Industrial and Management System Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
University of South Florida · USUniversity of Miami · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeSocial intervention strategies to mitigate COVID-19 are examined using an agent-based simulation model. Outbreak in a large urban region, Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA is used as a case study. Results are intended to serve as a planning guide for decision makers.

methodsThe simulation model mimics daily social mixing behavior of the susceptible and infected generating the spread. Data representing demographics of the region, virus epidemiology, and social interventions shapes model behavior. Results include daily values of infected, reported, hospitalized, and dead.

resultsResults show that early implementation of complete stay-at-home order is effective in flattening and reversing the infection growth curve in a short period of time. Whereas, using Florida's Phase II plan alone could result in 75% infected and end of pandemic via herd immunity. Universal use of face masks reduced infected by 20%. A further reduction of 66% was achieved by adding contact tracing with a target of identifying 50% of the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.

conclusionsIn the absence of a vaccine, the strict stay-at-home order, though effective in curbing a pandemic outbreak, leaves a large proportion of the population susceptible. Hence, there should be a strong follow up plan of social distancing, use of face mask, contact tracing, testing, and isolation of infected to minimize the chances of large-scale resurgence of the disease. However, as the economic cost of the complete stay-at-home-order is very high, it can perhaps be used only as an emergency first response, and the authorities should be prepared to activate a strong follow up plan as soon as possible. The target level for contact tracing was shown to have a nonlinear impact on the reduction of the percentage of population infected. Increase in contact tracing target from 20% to 30% appeared to provide the largest incremental benefit.

Indexed as

Agent-based simulation modelContact tracingCOVID-19Face maskIntervention strategiesSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33103108
PMCPMC7569419
OpenAlexW3093348809

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.