ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2021
Mathematical perspective of Covid-19 pandemic: Disease extinction criteria in deterministic and stochastic models.
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 51 citations in OpenAlex.
- Optimising pandemic response through vaccination strategies using neural networks.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Assessing the Impact of Haulage Drivers in Uganda's COVID-19 Delta Wave.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Mathematical modeling predicts that endemics by generalist insects are eradicated if nearly all plants produce constitutive defense.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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- Stochastic analysis of a COVID-19 model with effects of vaccination and different transition rates: Real data approach.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- A hybrid compartmental model with a case study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel.Journal of mathematics in industry · 2023Article
- Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Dynamical analysis of a stochastic delayed epidemic model with lévy jumps and regime switching.Journal of the Franklin Institute · 2023Article
- Circulating U13 Small Nucleolar RNA as a Potential Biomarker in Huntington's Disease: A Pilot Study.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
- Forecasting of a complex phenomenon using stochastic data-based techniques under non-conventional schemes: The SARS-CoV-2 virus spread case.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Article
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics between healthcare workers and community.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Controlling of pandemic COVID-19 using optimal control theory.Results in physics · 2021Article
- A two diffusion stochastic model for the spread of the new corona virus SARS-CoV-2.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- A new fractional mathematical modelling of COVID-19 with the availability of vaccine.Results in physics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The world has been facing the biggest virological invasion in the form of Covid-19 pandemic since the beginning of the year 2020. In this paper, we consider a deterministic epidemic model of four compartments based on the health status of the populations of a given country to capture the disease progression. A stochastic extension of the deterministic model is further considered to capture the uncertainty or variation observed in the disease transmissibility. In the case of a deterministic system, the disease-free equilibrium will be globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, otherwise, the disease persists. Using Lyapunov functional methods, we prove that the infected population of the stochastic system tends to zero exponentially almost surely if the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The stochastic system has no interior equilibrium, however, its asymptotic solution is shown to fluctuate around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic system under some parametric restrictions, implying that the infection persists. A case study with the Covid-19 epidemic data of Spain is presented and various analytical results have been demonstrated. The epidemic curve in Spain clearly shows two waves of infection. The first wave was observed during March-April and the second wave started in the middle of July and not completed yet. A real-time reproduction number has been given to illustrate the epidemiological status of Spain throughout the study period. Estimated cumulative numbers of confirmed and death cases are 1,613,626 and 42,899, respectively, with case fatality rate 2.66% till the deadly virus is eliminated from Spain.
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