ArticleNature medicine2021
Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States.
Article in Nature medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 248 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
248 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Pooled it
- Global prevalence and burden of depressive and anxiety disorders in 204 countries and territories in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.Lancet (London, England) · 2021Pooled it
- Facial mask personalization encourages facial mask wearing in times of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Trial
- Comparing the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Resistance Evolving Across Regions in the Americas with Differing Approaches to Public Health.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Pricing decisions of converted and expanded enterprises for medical supplies under major public health emergencies.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Systematic Determinants of Global COVID-19 Burden: Longitudinal Time-Series Analysis Using Big Data-Driven Artificial Intelligence.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Combining data assimilation of states and parameters for more precise infectious disease prediction.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.Lancet (London, England) · 2025Article
- The interaction between population age structure and policy interventions on the spread of COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- A rubric for assessing conformance to the Ten Rules for credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare.PloS one · 2025Article
- What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?International journal of public health · 2025Review
- Harnessing multi-output machine learning approach and dynamical observables from network structure to optimize COVID-19 intervention strategies.Biology methods & protocols · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Reproduction Numbers and Long COVID Prevalences in California State Prisons.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Factors associated with the perception of resentment towards the Chinese in Latin America during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Predictors of seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2 among employees at a large urban medical center.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Kinetics of Viral Shedding for Outbreak Surveillance of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Modeling Approach to SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron Infection.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Managing spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptibles by embedding it into an homogeneous model: A mechanistic and deep learning study.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
188 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
We use COVID-19 case and mortality data from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States at the state level from 22 September 2020 through 28 February 2021. Using this SEIR model, and projections of critical driving covariates (pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates and mask use per capita), we assessed scenarios of social distancing mandates and levels of mask use. Projections of current non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies by state-with social distancing mandates reinstated when a threshold of 8 deaths per million population is exceeded (reference scenario)-suggest that, cumulatively, 511,373 (469,578-578,347) lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by 28 February 2021. We find that achieving universal mask use (95% mask use in public) could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Universal mask use could save an additional 129,574 (85,284-170,867) lives from September 22, 2020 through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 (60,731-133,077) lives assuming a lesser adoption of mask wearing (85%), when compared to the reference scenario.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.