ArticleScientific reports2020
New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Profiling the HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Cascade in Japan: A Latent Class Analysis of a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Efficacy and Safety of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Control HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Protocol for a Single-Arm Interventional Study.JMIR research protocols · 2023Article
- Associations between Drug Use and Sexual Risk Behaviours among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Japan: Results from the Cross-Sectional LASH Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Moving towards zero new HIV infections: The importance of combination prevention.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Elimination of HIV transmission in Japanese MSM with combination interventions.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- HTLV-1 Transmission and HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis: A Scoping Review.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- A SWOT Analysis of the Guidelines on Prevention of HIV/AIDS in Japan in the Context of COVID-19.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
HIV prevalence in Japan continues to increase among men who have sex with men (MSM). We built a mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic, including acute infection and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and projected the model to 2050. We compared current testing and treatment policies, a scenario where Japan achieves UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, three PrEP scenarios defined by different coverage levels of 25%, 50%, and 75% among the 20% of MSM with the highest risk behavior, and combinations of these scenarios. With no change in interventions prevalence of HIV among MSM will rise to 9.0% in 2050. If Japan achieves full UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, 84.9% of these infections would be averted. Under 50% PrEP with no expansion of testing and treatment, prevalence will reach 2.6% and 62.1% of infections would be averted by 2050. If in addition UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals are achieved, 92.7% of HIV infections would be prevented by 2050. All interventions tested in this model were cost-saving relative to the base case. Both PrEP and enhanced ART strategies can be cost-saving, and if Japan enhances its testing program for MSM and introduces PrEP, it has the potential to effectively eliminate new infections in the next 30 years.
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