ArticleBMJ open2020
Development and internal validation of prognostic models to predict negative health outcomes in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practice.
Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- A machine learning approach towards assessing consistency and reproducibility: an application to graft survival across three kidney transplantation eras.Frontiers in digital health · 2024Article
- Identifying Predictors of Nursing Home Admission by Using Electronic Health Records and Administrative Data: Scoping Review.JMIR aging · 2023Article
- How to Improve Healthcare for Patients with Multimorbidity and Polypharmacy in Primary Care: A Pragmatic Cluster-Randomized Clinical Trial of the MULTIPAP Intervention.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Article
- Understanding the Relationship Between Adverse Medication Use and Falls Among Older Patients Receiving Home Medical Care: OHCARE study.Gerontology & geriatric medicineArticle
- Impact of Clinical Pharmacist-led Interventions on the Outcomes of Patients with Bipolar I Disorder: A Randomized Clinical Trial.Journal of research in pharmacy practiceArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPolypharmacy interventions are resource-intensive and should be targeted to those at risk of negative health outcomes. Our aim was to develop and internally validate prognostic models to predict health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and the combined outcome of falls, hospitalisation, institutionalisation and nursing care needs, in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practices.
methods
resultsMost important predictors of EQ-5D-3L at 6 months in best model (Nagelkerke's R² 0.507) were depressive symptoms (-2.73 (95% CI: -3.56 to -1.91)), MAI (-0.39 (95% CI: -0.7 to -0.08)), baseline EQ-5D-3L (0.55 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.64)). Models based on claims data and those predicting long-term outcomes based on both data sets produced low R² values. In claims data-based model with highest explanatory power (R²=0.16), previous falls/fall-related injuries, previous hospitalisations, age, number of involved physicians and disease count were most important predictor variables.
conclusionsBest trial data-based model predicted HRQoL after 6 months well and included parameters of well-being not found in claims. Performance of claims data-based models and models predicting long-term outcomes was relatively weak. For generalisability, future studies should refit models by considering parameters representing well-being and functional status.
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Registered trials
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