ArticlePLoS biology2020
Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.
Article in PLoS biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- A reusable model of pangenome selection informs optimal surveillance strategies over vaccine introductions.Genome medicine · 2026Article
- Predicting optimal impact interventions in the post-HPV vaccination world.International journal of cancer · 2026Review
- Epistasis mediates the role of negative frequency-dependent selection in bacterial strain structure.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Negative Frequency-Dependent Selection Promotes Strain Structure in a Plant Pathogen.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Horizontal gene transfer, segregation loss, and the speed of microbial adaptation.Evolution letters · 2025Article
- Ecological diversification in rapidly evolving populations.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Quantifying the effects of antibiotic resistance and within-host competition on strain fitness in Streptococcus pneumoniae.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- Linkage-based ortholog refinement in bacterial pangenomes with CLARC.Nucleic acids research · 2025Article
- Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats.Life science alliance · 2024Review
- Article
- Article
- Long-term evolution of Streptococcus mitis and Streptococcus pneumoniae leads to higher genetic diversity within rather than between human populations.PLoS genetics · 2024Article
- Article
- Convergent impact of vaccination and antibiotic pressures on pneumococcal populations.Cell chemical biology · 2024Review
- Pneumococcal population genomics changes during the early time period of conjugate vaccine uptake in southern India.Microbial genomics · 2024Article
- The metabolic, virulence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of colonising Streptococcus pneumoniae shift after PCV13 introduction in urban Malawi.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Accurate and fast graph-based pangenome annotation and clustering with ggCaller.Genome research · 2023Article
- Article
- Genomics and pathotypes of the many faces of Escherichia coli.FEMS microbiology reviews · 2022Article
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16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.
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