Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33090117›Full record

ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2020

A Racially Unbiased, Machine Learning Approach to Prediction of Mortality: Algorithm Development Study.

Angier Allen, Samson Mataraso, Anna Siefkas, Hoyt Burdick, Gregory Braden, R Phillip Dellinger, Andrea McCoy, Emily Pellegrini, Jana Hoffman, Abigail Green-Saxena and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  7. Using Under-Represented Subgroup Fine Tuning to Improve Fairness for Disease Prediction.Biomedical engineering systems and technologies, international joint conference, BIOSTEC ... revised selected papers. BIOSTEC (Conference) · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Angier AllenDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-7808-6244
Samson MatarasoDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-3146-2243
Anna SiefkasDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-8379-6523
Hoyt BurdickCabell Huntington Hospital, Huntington, WV, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-7502-5021
Gregory BradenKidney Care and Transplant Associates of New England, Springfield, MA, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-1883-2609
R Phillip DellingerDivision of Critical Care Medicine, Cooper University Hospital/Cooper Medical School of Rowan University, Camden, NJ, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-8757-8929
Andrea McCoyCape Regional Medical Center, Cape May Court House, NJ, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-4067-4096
Emily PellegriniDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-7614-9299
Jana HoffmanDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-7745-3900
Abigail Green-SaxenaDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-8502-6589
Gina BarnesDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-8093-0245
Jacob CalvertDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-9173-0946
Ritankar DasDascena, Inc, San Francisco, CA, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-1326-844X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRacial disparities in health care are well documented in the United States. As machine learning methods become more common in health care settings, it is important to ensure that these methods do not contribute to racial disparities through biased predictions or differential accuracy across racial groups.

objectiveThe goal of the research was to assess a machine learning algorithm intentionally developed to minimize bias in in-hospital mortality predictions between white and nonwhite patient groups.

methodsBias was minimized through preprocessing of algorithm training data. We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic health record data from patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at a large academic health center between 2001 and 2012, drawing data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III database. Patients were included if they had at least 10 hours of available measurements after ICU admission, had at least one of every measurement used for model prediction, and had recorded race/ethnicity data. Bias was assessed through the equal opportunity difference. Model performance in terms of bias and accuracy was compared with the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE).

resultsThe machine learning algorithm was found to be more accurate than all comparators, with a higher sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic. The machine learning algorithm was found to be unbiased (equal opportunity difference 0.016, P=.20). APACHE was also found to be unbiased (equal opportunity difference 0.019, P=.11), while SAPS II and MEWS were found to have significant bias (equal opportunity difference 0.038, P=.006 and equal opportunity difference 0.074, P<.001, respectively).

conclusionsThis study indicates there may be significant racial bias in commonly used severity scoring systems and that machine learning algorithms may reduce bias while improving on the accuracy of these methods.

Indexed as

Hospital MortalityAdultAgedAlgorithmsAPACHECohort StudiesEarly Warning ScoreElectronic Health RecordsFemaleForecastingHumansMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesSimplified Acute Physiology Scorehealth disparitiesmachine learningmortalitypredictionracial disparities

Identifiers

PMID33090117
PMCPMC7644374

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.