ArticleEClinicalMedicine2020
Understanding the impact of interruptions to HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic: A modelling study.
Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
51 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 72 citations in OpenAlex.
- Incidence of lost to follow up among HIV-positive children on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: Systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2024Pooled it
- Does telehealth affect the adherence to ART among patients with HIV? A systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on service delivery and treatment outcomes in people living with HIV: a systematic review.AIDS research and therapy · 2023Pooled it
- How Central Ugandan HIV Clinics Adapted During COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions to Promote Continuous Access to Care: A Qualitative Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2023Trial
- Increased prevalence of depression and anxiety among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Shinyanga region, Tanzania.AIDS research and therapy · 2023Trial
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on access to family planning and HIV services among women in Lilongwe, Malawi.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among MSM in Australia.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Telehealth or in-person HIV care? Qualitative study findings on decision-making from people with HIV and HIV care providers in South Carolina during the COVID-19 pandemic.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- Optimizing the Use of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests for the Timely Detection of and Response to COVID-19 in Schools and Markets in Uganda.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- A comparative analysis of voluntary medical male circumcision before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Gauteng province, South Africa.South African family practice : official journal of the South African Academy of Family Practice/Primary Care · 2025Article
- Interventions to Maintain HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Service Delivery During Public Health Emergencies in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Protocol for a Systematic Review.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- Article
- Ethnopharmacological exploration and isolation of HIV-1 latency-reversing agents from Sudanese medicinal plants.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2025Article
- Place Visitation Data Reveals the Geographic and Racial Disparities of COVID-19 Impact on HIV Service Utilization in the Deep South.AIDS and behavior · 2024Article
- The Impacts of HIV-Related Service Interruptions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Protocol of a Mixed Methodology Longitudinal Study.AIDS and behavior · 2024Article
- Article
- Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- Pediatric and adolescent HIV viral load coverage and suppression rates in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 12 PEPFAR-supported sub-Saharan African countries in 2019 and 2020.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Global Health Commodities Supply Chain in the Era of COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges, Impacts, and Prospects: A Systematic Review.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2024Review
- Intersecting epidemics: COVID-19 and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic review (2020-2022).Journal of public health in Africa · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThere is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic could severely disrupt HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa. However, it is difficult to determine priorities for maintaining different elements of existing HIV services given widespread uncertainty.
methodsWe explore the impact of disruptions on HIV outcomes in South Africa, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Uganda using a mathematical model, examine how impact is affected by model assumptions, and compare potential HIV deaths to those that may be caused by COVID-19 in the same settings.
findingsThe most important determinant of HIV-related mortality is an interruption to antiretroviral treatment (ART) supply. A three-month interruption for 40% of those on ART could cause a similar number of additional deaths as those that might be saved from COVID-19 through social distancing. An interruption for more than 6-90% of individuals on ART for nine months could cause the number of HIV deaths to exceed the number of COVID-19 deaths, depending on the COVID-19 projection. However, if ART supply is maintained, but new treatment, voluntary medical male circumcision, and pre-exposure prophylaxis initiations cease for 3 months and condom use is reduced, increases in HIV deaths would be limited to <2% over five years, although this could still be accompanied by a 7% increase in new HIV infections.
interpretationHIV deaths could increase substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic under reasonable worst-case assumptions about interruptions to HIV services. It is a priority in high-burden countries to ensure continuity of ART during the pandemic.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.