Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33088924›Full record

ArticleWellcome open research2020

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study.

Karl J Friston, Thomas Parr, Peter Zeidman, Adeel Razi, Guillaume Flandin, Jean Daunizeau, Oliver J Hulme, Alexander J Billig, Vladimir Litvak, Cathy J Price and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Wellcome open research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Karl J FristonThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7984-8909
Thomas ParrThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5108-5743
Peter ZeidmanThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.
Adeel RaziThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-9439
Guillaume FlandinThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.
Jean DaunizeauInstitut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière, INSERM UMRS 1127, Paris, France.
Oliver J HulmeDanish Research Centre for Magnetic Resonance, Centre for Functional and Diagnostic Imaging and Research, Copenhagen University Hospital, Hvidovre, Denmark.
Alexander J BilligUCL Ear Institute, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4531-8616
Vladimir LitvakThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.
Cathy J PriceThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.
Rosalyn J MoranCentre for Neuroimaging Science, Department of Neuroimaging, IoPPN, King's College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2736-2621
Anthony CostelloUCL Institute for Global Health, Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK.
Deenan PillayUCL Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK.
Christian LambertThe Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8281-4611

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/M023672/1Medical Research Council MR/R006504/1Wellcome Trust 205103/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.

Indexed as

Bayesiancompartmental modelscoronavirusdynamic causal modellingepidemiologyvariational

Identifiers

PMID33088924
PMCPMC7549178

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.