Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33083565›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2020

A validated, real-time prediction model for favorable outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Narges Razavian, Vincent J Major, Mukund Sudarshan, Jesse Burk-Rafel, Peter Stella, Hardev Randhawa, Seda Bilaloglu, Ji Chen, Vuthy Nguy, Walter Wang and 14 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Electronic Phenotype for Detection, Staging, and Subtyping of Acute Kidney Injury.American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation · 2026
    Article
  4. Predicting post-liver transplant outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure using Expert-Augmented Machine Learning.American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Narges Razavian *Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Vincent J Major *Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2604-3458
Mukund Sudarshan *Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6374-753X
Jesse Burk-RafelDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3785-2154
Peter StellaDepartment of Pediatrics, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7521-2516
Hardev RandhawaMedical Center IT, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY USA.
Seda BilalogluDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Ji ChenDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4856-0141
Vuthy NguyDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Walter WangDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Hao ZhangDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Ilan ReinsteinInstitute for Innovations in Medical Education, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
David KudlowitzDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Cameron ZengerDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Meng CaoDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Ruina ZhangDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Siddhant DograDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2386-7849
Keerthi B HarishDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9244-7253
Brian BosworthDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Fritz FrancoisDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Leora I HorwitzDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Rajesh RanganathDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Jonathan AustrianDepartment of Medicine, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.
Yindalon AphinyanaphongsDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8605-5392

Funding

Project-005UL1TR001445 · NCATS · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI BREDELLA, MIRIAM ANTOINETTE, HOCHMAN, JUDITH S · 2015 to 2025
$103.5M
Research Education ComponentP30AG066512 · NIA · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI Mary Sherman Mittelman · 2020 to 2026
$28.4M
Deep probabilistic predictive models for stroke and coronary heart diseaseR01HL148248 · NHLBI · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY · PI RANGANATH, RAJESH · 2019 to 2023
$3.3M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001445NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL148248NIA NIH HHS P30 AG066512
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged front-line clinical decision-making, leading to numerous published prognostic tools. However, few models have been prospectively validated and none report implementation in practice. Here, we use 3345 retrospective and 474 prospective hospitalizations to develop and validate a parsimonious model to identify patients with favorable outcomes within 96 h of a prediction, based on real-time lab values, vital signs, and oxygen support variables. In retrospective and prospective validation, the model achieves high average precision (88.6% 95% CI: [88.4-88.7] and 90.8% [90.8-90.8]) and discrimination (95.1% [95.1-95.2] and 86.8% [86.8-86.9]) respectively. We implemented and integrated the model into the EHR, achieving a positive predictive value of 93.3% with 41% sensitivity. Preliminary results suggest clinicians are adopting these scores into their clinical workflows.

Indexed as

Health carePrognosisViral infection

Identifiers

PMID33083565
PMCPMC7538971

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.