Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33081698›Full record

ArticleBMC medical research methodology2020

Bayesian splines versus fractional polynomials in network meta-analysis.

Andreas Heinecke, Marta Tallarita, Maria De Iorio

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Review
  4. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Andreas HeineckeYale-NUS College, 16 College Avenue West, Singapore, 138527, Singapore.
Marta TallaritaDepartment of Statistical Science, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Maria De IorioYale-NUS College, 16 College Avenue West, Singapore, 138527, Singapore. m.deiorio@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-3109-0478

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNetwork meta-analysis (NMA) provides a powerful tool for the simultaneous evaluation of multiple treatments by combining evidence from different studies, allowing for direct and indirect comparisons between treatments. In recent years, NMA is becoming increasingly popular in the medical literature and underlying statistical methodologies are evolving both in the frequentist and Bayesian framework. Traditional NMA models are often based on the comparison of two treatment arms per study. These individual studies may measure outcomes at multiple time points that are not necessarily homogeneous across studies.

methodsIn this article we present a Bayesian model based on B-splines for the simultaneous analysis of outcomes across time points, that allows for indirect comparison of treatments across different longitudinal studies.

resultsWe illustrate the proposed approach in simulations as well as on real data examples available in the literature and compare it with a model based on P-splines and one based on fractional polynomials, showing that our approach is flexible and overcomes the limitations of the latter.

conclusionsThe proposed approach is computationally efficient and able to accommodate a large class of temporal treatment effect patterns, allowing for direct and indirect comparisons of widely varying shapes of longitudinal profiles.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsBayes TheoremHumansLongitudinal StudiesNetwork Meta-Analysis as TopicBayesian evidence synthesis techniquesClinical trialsEvidence-synthesisLongitudinal studiesMarkov chain Monte Carlo methodsMixed treatment comparisonP-splines

Identifiers

PMID33081698
PMCPMC7574305

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.