Cyclic epidemics and extreme outbreaks induced by hydro-climatic variability and memory.

Milad Hooshyar, Caroline E Wagner, Rachel E Baker, C Jessica E Metcalf, Bryan T Grenfell, Amilcare Porporato

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

2citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.Nature communications · 2024
Article
Verification of operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts of precipitation using satellite rainfall estimates over Africa.Meteorological applications
Article

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Milad HooshyarCEE, PEI, and PIIRS, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Caroline E WagnerDepartment of Bioengineering, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.

Rachel E BakerEEB and PEI, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

C Jessica E MetcalfEEB and PEI, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Bryan T GrenfellEEB and PEI, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Amilcare PorporatoCEE and PEI, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A minimalist model of ecohydrologic dynamics is coupled to the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model to explore hydro-climatic controls on infection dynamics and extreme outbreaks. The resulting HYSIR model reveals the existence of a noise-induced bifurcation producing oscillations in infection dynamics. Linearization of the governing equations allows for an analytic expression for the periodicity of infections in terms of both epidemiological (e.g. transmission and recovery rate) and hydrologic (i.e. soil moisture decay rate or memory) parameters. Numerical simulations of the full stochastic, nonlinear system show extreme outbreaks in response to particular combinations of hydro-climatic conditions, neither of which is extreme

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksEpidemicsSoilSoildengueepidemiologyhydrologyinfectious disease

Identifiers

PMID33081643

DOI10.1098/rsif.2020.0521

PMCPMC7653386

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.