ArticleTicks and tick-borne diseases2021
Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019-2021.
Article in Ticks and tick-borne diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.
- Neurotropic Tick-Borne Flavivirus in Alpine Chamois (Viruses · 2025Article
- Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- [Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the occurrence of neurological infectious diseases].Der Nervenarzt · 2023Review
- The epidemiology of infectious diseases in Europe in 2020 versus 2017-2019 and the rise of tick-borne encephalitis (1995-2020).Ticks and tick-borne diseases · 2022Article
- Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018-2020.Microorganisms · 2022Article
- Incidence of Tick-Borne Encephalitis during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Selected European Countries.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Beech tree masting explains the inter-annual variation in the fall and spring peaks of Ixodes ricinus ticks with different time lags.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- The regional decline and rise of tick-borne encephalitis incidence do not correlate with Lyme borreliosis, Austria, 2005 to 2018.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021Article
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2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In spring 2019, forecasts of the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) for the next 2 years, i.e. 2019 and 2020, were made for the first time. For this purpose, negative binomial regression models with 4-5 predictors were fitted to the time series of annual human TBE incidences from Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. The most important predictor for TBE incidences is the fructification index of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica) 2 years prior as a proxi for the intensity of the TBE virus transmission cycle. These forecasts were repeated in spring 2020 after the updated predictors and the confirmed TBE cases for 2019 became available. Forecasting TBE incidences for 2020 and 2021 results in 156 ± 19 and 131 ± 23 TBE cases for Austria, 663 ± 95 and 543 ± 112 TBE cases for Germany as well as 472 ± 56 and 350 ± 62 TBE cases for Switzerland. The newly implemented operational TBE forecasts will be verified every year with confirmed TBE cases. An initial verification for 2019 demonstrates the high reliability of the forecasts.
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