SynthesisNature medicine2020
Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings.
Synthesis in Nature medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
55 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 106 citations in OpenAlex.
- Diagnostic Performance of New Commercial Interferon-Gamma Release Assays for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Pooled it
- Effectiveness of preventive treatment among different age groups and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status: a systematic review and individual-participant data meta-analysis of contact tracing studies.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Rapid molecular testing or chest X-ray or tuberculin skin testing for household contact assessment of tuberculosis infection: A cluster-randomized trial.PLoS medicine · 2025Trial
- Can digital adherence technologies reduce inequity in tuberculosis treatment success? Evidence from a randomised controlled trial.BMJ global health · 2022Trial
- Sex differences in tuberculosis incidence: a pooled analysis of 11 prospective cohort studies.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Context-dependent risk stratification using a tuberculin skin test induration threshold of ≥ 15 mm in school tuberculosis screening in Hangzhou, China: a historical cohort study.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Towards tuberculosis elimination in people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy: evidence from a two-decade nationwide cohort in Spain.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Article
- Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Prevalence, 2024-2050.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Comparative tuberculosis risk in healthcare and educational workers: occupational synergy.ERJ open research · 2026Article
- Evolution of the tuberculin skin test reveals generalisable Mtb-reactive T cell metaclones.Nature communications · 2026Article
- From clinical phenotypes to genomic signatures: machine learning integration for precision tuberculosis treatment prediction.Frontiers in bioinformatics · 2026Article
- Optimizing tuberculosis infection screening strategies for people living with HIV in Thailand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- A cost-effectiveness evaluation of methods for screening for TB infection in patients with diabetes mellitus.IJTLD open · 2025Article
- The performance of computer-aided detection for chest radiography in tuberculosis screening: a population-based retrospective cohort study.Emerging microbes & infections · 2025Article
- Identifying Gaps in Tuberculosis Preventive Care for Non-U.S.-born Persons at Community Health Clinics in the United States.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Hypercoagulability in Tuberculosis: Pathophysiological Mechanisms, Associated Risks, and Advances in Management-A Narrative Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Immunological testing and machine learning in detecting latent tuberculosis among high-risk groups (nature review).Frontiers in medicine · 2025Review
- Observational
- Transcriptomic Signatures of Progression to Tuberculosis Disease Among Close Contacts in Brazil.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Early prediction of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission clusters using supervised learning models.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
37 authors at 20 institutions in 12 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.