ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- A century of weekly notifiable disease incidence data by province in Canada.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Transition Metal Ions in Methylammonium Chloride Perovskites.ACS omega · 2022Article
- Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.Theoretical ecology · 2021Article
- Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries.PLoS biology · 2020Article
- Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster ("accelerated"). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.
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