ArticleParasites & vectors2020
Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- How plastic are upper thermal limits? A comparative study in tsetse (family: Glossinidae) and wider Diptera.Journal of thermal biology · 2023Pooled it
- Climate-Sensitive Redistribution of Veterinary Parasites: An Attribution Framework for One Health Surveillance and Control.Biology · 2026Review
- Optimization of Quinazolines for Inhibition ofACS medicinal chemistry letters · 2025Article
- Impact of climate change and variability on the occurrence and distribution of Trypanosoma vectors in The Gambia.Parasitology research · 2025Article
- First detection and phylogenetic analysis of Trypanosoma species in European wolves and bears: discovery of novel haplotypes.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Assessing Sub-Saharan Africa's readiness to address the impact of climate change and health: A scoping review.PloS one · 2025Article
- Mechanisms of life cycle simplification in African trypanosomes.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Epidemiological investigation of trypanosomosis in livestock and distribution of vector in Dabo Hana district, Southwest Oromia, Ethiopia.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2024Article
- Using participatory epidemiology to investigate the causes of cattle abortion in Southwest Ethiopia.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Spatial distribution of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) in Zambia: A vehicle-mounted sticky trap survey and Maxent species distribution model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Biogeography of the theileriosis vector, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus under current and future climate scenarios of Zimbabwe.Experimental & applied acarology · 2023Article
- The Global Contributions of Working Equids to Sustainable Agriculture and Livelihoods in Agenda 2030.EcoHealth · 2022Review
- Parasite co-infection: an ecological, molecular and experimental perspective.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Projecting the Potential Distribution ofBiology · 2021Article
- A Cross-Sectional Study Examining the Role of Climate Variability in Shaping Trypanosomiasis Trends in Binga District, Zimbabwe (2008-2023): A Multi-Method Survey.Inquiry : a journal of medical care organization, provision and financingArticle
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundClimate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.
methodsLocal weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.
resultsWe produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.
conclusionsTo our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.
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