Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33071402›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of forecasting

Comparing the accuracy of several network-based COVID-19 prediction algorithms.

Massimo A Achterberg, Bastian Prasse, Long Ma, Stojan Trajanovski, Maksim Kitsak, Piet Van Mieghem

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of forecasting. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. A simplicial epidemic model for COVID-19 spread analysis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Comparison of Three Prediction Models for Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2023
    Article
  5. Autoregressive count data modeling on mobility patterns to predict cases of COVID-19 infection.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2022
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. COVID-19 prediction models: a systematic literature review.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2021
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Massimo A AchterbergFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands.
Bastian PrasseFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands.
Long MaFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands.
Stojan TrajanovskiMicrosoft Inc., 2 Kingdom St, London W2 6BD, United Kingdom.
Maksim KitsakFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands.
Piet Van MieghemFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Researchers from various scientific disciplines have attempted to forecast the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The proposed epidemic prediction methods range from basic curve fitting methods and traffic interaction models to machine-learning approaches. If we combine all these approaches, we obtain the Network Inference-based Prediction Algorithm (NIPA). In this paper, we analyse a diverse set of COVID-19 forecast algorithms, including several modifications of NIPA. Among the algorithms that we evaluated, the original NIPA performed best at forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei, China and in the Netherlands. In particular, we show that network-based forecasting is superior to any other forecasting algorithm.

Indexed as

Bayesian methodsEpidemiologyForecast accuracyMachine learning methodsNetwork inferenceSIR modelTime series methods

Identifiers

PMID33071402
PMCPMC7546239

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.